The Taco Traveler

Well, that low has almost moved south and east and is still sitting just barely on top of Cabo (see satellite photo), and its after-effects are large swells offshore that may or may not affect me if I hug the coast on leg 1, and lots of wind in the Sea of Cortez. That wind in the Sea is pretty strong from the NW, but according to most models it crosses the peninsula and creates some northeasterlies in the Pacific, which would be okay. In the image you can see the red wind indicators (the low-level wind) and they all seem to be pointing out to sea, doing a clock-wise swirly way out there.

Bottom line is that nothing out there is dangerous - I'm not waiting for weather in that way. It's just that I don't want to be too uncomfortable while sailing or motoring north. It would be nice to be able to have a little rest along the way - a little bit of easy cruising.

I'm going to give it one more day for the swells to flatten out, and ensure that the strong winds offshore don't get here. So early tomorrow I'll be heading out of Cabo harbor and around the cape. It's tough because it seems so innocuous from here where the biggest weather creators / water-stirrers are the jet skis. But I don't really know what it's going to look like when I poke my bow out into the open Pacific. All the forecasts around here rely on weather models - there are no actual buoys offshore measuring wind, swell, temp.... And those models are built and interpreted from very far away. Still, as always, there's the timing issue - trying to arrive in Ensenada when the Capitania is open so I can check out of Mexico, and then arriving in San Diego to where I don't have to spend too much time at the Harbor Police dock waiting to check into the country again.

TT

 

So it looks like my old friends up in the Seattle area are about to get clobbered again by a big fat cold storm. I haven't heard any Seattle forecasts, but I just ran the radar loop at NOAA for the whole west coast and it's not pretty:

You can't see it in this still (and I'm not into it enough to create an animated GIF for you) but that mass out there is spinning clockwise and is going to bring a lot of mess up there. It's affecting me way down here because that system is pushing other weather down here, creating the northerlies and northwesterlies that will make the trip up Baja difficult - especially solo. But I'm still planning on heading out at some point on the 27th - probably about 8pm or so, is how it looks now. My goal the first day is Bahia Santa Maria - there's really nowhere else to stop. That should take me exactly 24 hours. After that I'll evaluate the weather again and decide if I'll hug the coastline or if I may do better farther offshore on a longer run. The longer range forecast is calling for northeasterlies after this system goes through, so I may be fine staying 5-10 miles offshore and getting a good beam reach up the coast. That's almost ideal. The only thing better, in fact, would be something more from the south pushing me north / northwest. But I won't be greedy.

TT

 

Here's the Nobeltec weather overlay representation of the low pressure system / cold front / frente frio currently approaching Baja. No... I won't be going anywhere for a couple more days, at least.

The colors of the image indicate swell height. The reddest areas well offshore indicate 16ft swells. Closest to shore / Cabo are 3ft swells just offshore. The blocks on the inside of Baja are waypoints I've followed as I came down from San Carlos.

TT

 

It was an easy motor today, and I arrived at Cabo San Lucas Bay before noon and went straight for fuel and water to make sure that when the weather was ready I'd be ready. Then I anchored out in the bay and because of my averse reaction to random taxi fares (which carry over for the most part to random water taxi fares) I popped the dinghy into the water and lowered the motor down with the winch. The landing fee is amazing reasonable - just 3 bucks or 35 pesos (I think - it may have been 30 pesos which would be an amazing exchange rate). Anyway, it's a huge change from the ridiculous dinghy landing fee at Marina La Cruz de Huanacaxtle. There they wanted $10 U.S. and didn't have any flexibility at all. Say you wanted to have dinner and pay 300 pesos for a steak at the marina's restaurant? No, ya gotta pay ten bucks to land your dinghy. Anyway... yeah, amazing deal here at Marina Cabo San Lucas.

So I went directly to the Capitainia de Puerto to check in (and then out) so that I'd be ready to head out at any time, and while there I asked about the weather, and they printed up a flyer for me regarding a cold front moving in. They also stamped my exit papers with this ominous note: "SE ENTREGO REPORTE METEOROLOGICO CON LA FINALIDAD DE EXTREMAR PRECAUSIONES POR FRENTE FRIO." ("I delivered a meterological report [expressing the need for] extreme precautions due to [an approaching] cold front.") So... after confirming that report with a GRIB download overlaid on my Nobeltec and then a second confirmation once I discovered I had Internet out here, I've decided that I can't leave Cabo until at least 12/27. So it's unlikely I'll get to San Diego before 1/3 or so.

There are worse places to be stuck. The jet skiers are a little bit crazy here, but it's at least 85 degrees. Also, and some of my favorite experiences this entire trip have happened while waiting for weather.

TT

 

So... I'm heading back to Mexico in four days - Sunday the 12th. I've been watching this system develop over the last few days, and got a little worried when it became a hurricane yesterday, and am a lot worried now that it's a Category 4 hurricane, and heading just south of Guaymas / San Carlos, where Chemistry is in dry dock. Oh boy.

So not only do I have to land in Guaymas in a small plane in the remnants of a major hurricane, I also have to hope she comes out of it okay. You can click on the image for a larger version. I've marked Chemistry's approximate location with a red "X". She's actually right on the coast - but I wanted to make sure the X showed up.

TT

 

Even as Gustav dies down as he rolls over the coast of Louisiana, there are 5 more potential trouble-storms out there, either waiting to form or waiting to roll in. Check out this screen from www.nwc.noaa.gov:

In one glance, you see Gustav, Hanna (which is now a Cat 1 Hurricane, should hit the coast of Georgia on Friday and then make her way north as a Tropical Depression), TD Nine, two other potential storms even closer than Nine, and another "high probability" storm just now leaving the coast of Africa. Nine will be called Ike, Josephine or Kyle depending on when it becomes an actual named storm. Most likely it will be Ike, but if the other two "low probability" storms form more quickly, they could still the first two names, leaving Nine with Kyle. Not likely, but I wanted to list the next two names because I thought it was funny that Ike and Kyle are both names from South Park. Interesting, too, that "Nana" is the "N" storm this year in the Atlantic. That would suck if Nana created havoc, as millions of small children all around the Southeast US would be angry thinking their grandmother had something to do with the destruction.
[Edit 5pm CDT - "TD Nine" is now "Ike"]

I'm still here with the boys at R's house, waiting for the weather (though I could wait forever for weather) and to figure out where / when I'm going next. I had planned to visit friends in New Orleans, but with Gustav there will likely be complications in that plan. The most likely scenario is I'll be borrowing a bike and riding / camping my way down to Key West to check out the rest of Florida. I need to be back here in Panama City on Sept 17 so R can go visit her mom. Outside of that, the business responsibilities are all do-able from the road.

Good luck, New Orleans - seem so far today that the levees are holding.

TT

Well... she's safely tucked into the Sea of Cortez (see the yellow "C" up there?), but if you follow the storms at all, you've seen that in five days there have been three named storms blowing around down there, with another one spinning up around the Gulf of Tehuantapec right now. Boris and Douglas are named, but not hurricanes yet (they're at the "Tropical Storm" level). Cristina petered out a few days ago on her way to Hawaii. The one spinning up now will be called Elida if it gets going enough to earn a name. Click this link to check out the storm naming protocol.

If you're interested, you can find this graphic and many more at the National Hurricane Center: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/index.shtml. Of course the opening screen is always of the Western Atlantic because that's where hurricanes hit the US. There's one potentially forming off Africa now, but nothing huge yet. Click "Eastern Pacific" to see all the activity off Mexico. Pretty interesting stuff.

TT

If you've ever sailed or motored into 20+ knot winds, after looking at this weather prediction, you'll appreciate why we're still here in San Diego.

 
This is the model for 12Z this coming Sunday (4am PST), and it predicts south winds from 27-33 knots. So that's why we'll be here until sometime Monday, when the wind starts looking something more like this:

Though I feel in a hurry, I have to point out that I'm a champion at waiting for weather. Because of my late start from Seattle, I waited in Port Townsend for at least a week after the boat was ready, and then in Eureka for at least two weeks (with a visit to Seattle). And the San Francisco delay of a month or so wasn't due to weather as it was to a 10-day trip to see the boys. Here in San Diego the delay hasn't been weather at all, until now, but patience seems even more important when single-handing or heading out with inexperienced crew.
 
What I use mostly for weather is a site that Captain Rich turned me on to: Storm Surf. That link goes directly to the Wavewatch III weather models, which are built based on the NOAA Wavewatch III data from around the globe. Last night before we decided it wasn't worth it, I was looking at the three Baja charts (last table on the page) to see the local wind forecasts up & down the coast. Here's the forecast for Northern Baja (Ensenada). We could have been in Ensenada right now, but we would have been fighting 11-15 knot winds the whole way, and would have probably just motored.

For Central Baja, the wind is flukey until Friday, and then it comes out of the south for a few days, and on Sunday it's up to 32 knots. We would have been past the 32-knot section, but "racing" the weather is never smart. South Baja looks great, though Saturday and Sunday would have been blowing against us, by Monday everything is once again as it should be, blowing from the NW about 15-20 knots.

So I guess what I'm doing is trying to convince myself that staying here until after my trip to Seattle next week was the right thing. I know it was, but to rely so much on "forecasts" rather than getting out there and just dealing with it, makes me feel much less adventurous. But I want nice following breezes, and in this case, given everything else I've already mentioned, it just made sense to wait for them.

Right now Denali is playing his Charango on deck. It's a 10-stringed Andean instrument, and sounds very cool. After I go inform the dockmaster that I'll need to stay here another nine days (wonder if they're getting tired of me?), we'll go out for a sail. Well, at least it's a beautiful day in San Diego.

 

 

 

TT